Economic Forecast for US Economy for
2013 and Beyond
January 16, 2013
SouthAmerica: Since I have been a member of Elite Trader in May 2005, for the first time one of my threads have been completely deleted from the ET forum.
My screen name at the Elite Trader Forums is: SouthAmerica
Here is the thread that I posted in early January 2013 at the Elite Trader Economics forum: "Economic Forecast for US Economy for 2013 and Beyond"
Here is a copy of the thread that I had posted and they deleted the thread at the ET forum:
SouthAmerica: Since I have been a member of Elite Trader in May 2005, for the first time one of my threads have been completely deleted from the ET forum.
My screen name at the Elite Trader Forums is: SouthAmerica
Here is the thread that I posted in early January 2013 at the Elite Trader Economics forum: "Economic Forecast for US Economy for 2013 and Beyond"
Here is a copy of the thread that I had posted and they deleted the thread at the ET forum:
Economic Forecast for US Economy for
2013 and Beyond
January 1, 2013
SouthAmerica: My crystal ball continues to be very foggy these days, and I would be lying to you if I told you that I understand how the new economic system adopted by the United States in 2008 works.
It is very hard to make any intelligent predictions when today we have a new economic system adopted here in the United States based on stock market manipulations, massive U.S. government intervention and nationalization of major sectors of the US economy. And we have a U.S. government acting as if it’s in complete PANIC, because the entire US economic system is spinning completely out of control in a downward spiral, and as a result the US government is resorting to printing money as fast as they can in a major last effort to avoid a meltdown and the second leg of the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”
We had QE1, QE2, QE3, “QE-Europe”, and “QE-infinity” to keep Euroland and the U.S. financial and economic system afloat a little longer, and keep the entire system from imploding into a black hole.
I have been writing for many years that the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century” has been already underway for a few years. I mentioned on my articles, and on my postings on the Elite Trader forums. Here are a few links to the various threads:
SouthAmerica: My crystal ball continues to be very foggy these days, and I would be lying to you if I told you that I understand how the new economic system adopted by the United States in 2008 works.
It is very hard to make any intelligent predictions when today we have a new economic system adopted here in the United States based on stock market manipulations, massive U.S. government intervention and nationalization of major sectors of the US economy. And we have a U.S. government acting as if it’s in complete PANIC, because the entire US economic system is spinning completely out of control in a downward spiral, and as a result the US government is resorting to printing money as fast as they can in a major last effort to avoid a meltdown and the second leg of the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”
We had QE1, QE2, QE3, “QE-Europe”, and “QE-infinity” to keep Euroland and the U.S. financial and economic system afloat a little longer, and keep the entire system from imploding into a black hole.
I have been writing for many years that the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century” has been already underway for a few years. I mentioned on my articles, and on my postings on the Elite Trader forums. Here are a few links to the various threads:
It’s 2008. The U.S. Has Dragged
the World into a Depression
*****
Over 75 years ago Wall Street
Crashed; but today the New Crash is already underway...
*****
The coming international trade and
“Currency Wars”...
*****
The final collapse of the US dollar
it is just around the corner
*****
The US dollar and the biggest
default in history
*****
Central Banks and the US Dollar
*****
...According to the Bank for
International Settlements latest data, the total outstanding notional
amount was US$645 trillion (as of June 2012).
According to Bank of International
Settlements (BIS), the total outstanding OTC derivatives the total
outstanding notional amount was $708 trillion (that was about 11 time
the global GDP) as of June 2011 and the top 5 banks in the US
accounted for a massively disproportionate amount of it which is 96%
of the $250 trillion in total outstanding U.S. derivative exposure
according to Office Of the Currency Comptroller (OCC). Considering
that the U.S. banking sector had only $16 trillion in total balance
sheet assets, this was reckless to the extreme.
This unregulated market presents a
massive financial risk as one institution's failure could potentially
bring down or adversely affect a large number of biggest financial
institutions because of counter-party risk. Thus it became clear that
the reasons OTC derivatives promote systemic instability are
fundamental.
...The total outstanding notional
amount of US$708 trillion (as of June 2011). Of this total notional
amount, 67% are interest rate contracts, 8% are credit default swaps
(CDS), 9% are foreign exchange contracts, 2% are commodity contracts,
1% are equity contracts, and 12% are other. Because OTC derivatives
are not traded on an exchange, there is no central counter-party.
Therefore, they are subject to counter-party risk, like an ordinary
contract, since each counter-party relies on the other to perform.
*****
Derivatives market
What is
the status of proposed rule making in the U.S. and Europe?
As of June 2012, the CFTC has finalized
33 final rules and guidance and 7 final orders. Those rules can be
found here:
*****
In a Nutshell: The global
banking system still is at the edge of the abyss, and we would have a
massive global financial meltdown, if they were not trying to play
games with the figures, and trying very hard to hide their massive
losses the best way they can.
What this US$ 645 trillion dollars figure is telling me is that most of the derivatives is nothing more than a humongous “Ponzi Scheme” that can blow up at any time and start a massive chain reaction that can destroy the entire global financial system – it will be remembered as: the mother of all financial meltdowns.
During the great depression of the 1930's we had the stock market collapse of 1929, then in the following 3 years the stock market bounced back, then in 1932 started the real nasty decline that sunk the stock market and the US economy into the bottom of the abyss.
Today, we have reached that special 1932 turning point: the point where the stock market and the US economy it will sink like the Titanic.
What I am saying is: it does not matter that Barack Obama was re-elected president of the United States, because we are entering the catastrophic phase of the new great depression similar to the period from 1932 to 1940.
I don't know what kind of time the “QE-Europe”, and “QE-infinity” programs from US and European central bank can buy to keep the U.S. financial and economic system afloat a little longer, and keep the entire system from imploding into a black hole?
We are going to have real rough years ahead of us. It's not going to be a pretty sight.
You can bet on that!!!!!!!
By the way, this new great depression that is underway, it will be a lot worse than the great depression of the 1930's for large parts of the population.
You might be wondering why the US mainstream media has not been using the term “Great Depression” to described what has been going on in the economy of many countries all over Europe, and in the United States?
Only few years in the future they will look back to this period that we are going through, and then they will start calling this period the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”
My guess is that in 2013 – 2015 period we will have another massive global financial meltdown worse than the one we had in 2008.
We never had before so much government interference and manipulation on the financial markets in the way that we have today, and it is hard to predict what would create the spark that would blow up the entire global financial system – but that could happen at any time.
What this US$ 645 trillion dollars figure is telling me is that most of the derivatives is nothing more than a humongous “Ponzi Scheme” that can blow up at any time and start a massive chain reaction that can destroy the entire global financial system – it will be remembered as: the mother of all financial meltdowns.
During the great depression of the 1930's we had the stock market collapse of 1929, then in the following 3 years the stock market bounced back, then in 1932 started the real nasty decline that sunk the stock market and the US economy into the bottom of the abyss.
Today, we have reached that special 1932 turning point: the point where the stock market and the US economy it will sink like the Titanic.
What I am saying is: it does not matter that Barack Obama was re-elected president of the United States, because we are entering the catastrophic phase of the new great depression similar to the period from 1932 to 1940.
I don't know what kind of time the “QE-Europe”, and “QE-infinity” programs from US and European central bank can buy to keep the U.S. financial and economic system afloat a little longer, and keep the entire system from imploding into a black hole?
We are going to have real rough years ahead of us. It's not going to be a pretty sight.
You can bet on that!!!!!!!
By the way, this new great depression that is underway, it will be a lot worse than the great depression of the 1930's for large parts of the population.
You might be wondering why the US mainstream media has not been using the term “Great Depression” to described what has been going on in the economy of many countries all over Europe, and in the United States?
Only few years in the future they will look back to this period that we are going through, and then they will start calling this period the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”
My guess is that in 2013 – 2015 period we will have another massive global financial meltdown worse than the one we had in 2008.
We never had before so much government interference and manipulation on the financial markets in the way that we have today, and it is hard to predict what would create the spark that would blow up the entire global financial system – but that could happen at any time.
*****
Regarding Brazil and the Brazilian
Economy in 2013:
President Dilma Rousseff should keep Guido Mantega as the Finance Minister in Brazil, and she should ignore “The Economist” magazine suggestion.
“The Economist” magazine suggested recently that President Dilma Rousseff should fire the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega.
President Rousseff should ignore this silly suggestion from “The Economist”, and take it with a grain of salt considering the source of such a suggestion.
Guido Mantega has been guiding the Brazilian economy the best way he can considering the massive mess that we have in Euroland, and also in the United States that affects the Brazilian economy.Guido Mantega has been doing a superb job in putting in place the policies to protect the Brazilian economy, and place it in a path for prosperity in the coming years.
Finance Minister Guido Mantega should: Keep up the good work!!!!!
I understand that this attack by “The Economist” it is part of the “Currency Wars” that is going on - “The Economist” should concentrate and continue to give their precious advice to a bankrupt England and “The Bank of England’s” new boss Mark Carney; another gang member of “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” and their network of thieves.
President Dilma Rousseff should keep Guido Mantega as the Finance Minister in Brazil, and she should ignore “The Economist” magazine suggestion.
“The Economist” magazine suggested recently that President Dilma Rousseff should fire the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega.
President Rousseff should ignore this silly suggestion from “The Economist”, and take it with a grain of salt considering the source of such a suggestion.
Guido Mantega has been guiding the Brazilian economy the best way he can considering the massive mess that we have in Euroland, and also in the United States that affects the Brazilian economy.Guido Mantega has been doing a superb job in putting in place the policies to protect the Brazilian economy, and place it in a path for prosperity in the coming years.
Finance Minister Guido Mantega should: Keep up the good work!!!!!
I understand that this attack by “The Economist” it is part of the “Currency Wars” that is going on - “The Economist” should concentrate and continue to give their precious advice to a bankrupt England and “The Bank of England’s” new boss Mark Carney; another gang member of “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” and their network of thieves.
“The Economist”, and also the “Financial Times (UK)” doesn't like the interest rate, and currency policies that Finance Minister Guido Mantega, and the Brazilian Central Bank are following in Brazil, because they want Brazil to offer higher interest rates for the “Hot Money” - since Ben Bernanke (and the Federal Reserve) is keeping a very low artificial interest rate in the United States in a major effort to resuscitate the U.S. financial and economic system.
The “Currency
Wars” is going to move to a new level in 2013 as the European
Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of China,
the Japanese Central Bank, and the Bank of England under their new
“Godfather” Mark Carney continue their race to the
bottom.
Finance Minister Guido Mantega, and the Brazilian Central Bank should keep adjusting the interest rates in Brazil accordingly to the “Currency Wars”, and as the markets deteriorate in Europe and in the United States, they should continue to reduce further the interest rates in Brazil (Selic rate) to a level around 5 percent.
Finance Minister Guido Mantega, and the Brazilian Central Bank should keep adjusting the interest rates in Brazil accordingly to the “Currency Wars”, and as the markets deteriorate in Europe and in the United States, they should continue to reduce further the interest rates in Brazil (Selic rate) to a level around 5 percent.
Many people asked me if the year 2013
will be a rough year for the Brazilian economy as it continues to
adjust the internal market to achieve a sound economic and financial
system for the long term.
I remind my friends that even though 2013 it will be a very tough year for the Brazilian economy – they should look at from the correct perspective: when compared with the massive mess in Euroland, and the US economy, and the adjustments in the Asian economies – the Brazilian economy it will do better than these other competitors.
There's an important adjustment that Finance Minister Guido Mantega still need to implement in Brazil to raise income for the Brazilian government, and also to bring a better foundation to the stock market in Brazil: Finance Minister Guido Mantega need to create and adopt a financial transactions tax (FTT) to kill high frequency trading (HFT) in Brazil, and the distortion, the market instability, and the pillage of assets that (HFT) brings to the stock market.
I remind my friends that even though 2013 it will be a very tough year for the Brazilian economy – they should look at from the correct perspective: when compared with the massive mess in Euroland, and the US economy, and the adjustments in the Asian economies – the Brazilian economy it will do better than these other competitors.
There's an important adjustment that Finance Minister Guido Mantega still need to implement in Brazil to raise income for the Brazilian government, and also to bring a better foundation to the stock market in Brazil: Finance Minister Guido Mantega need to create and adopt a financial transactions tax (FTT) to kill high frequency trading (HFT) in Brazil, and the distortion, the market instability, and the pillage of assets that (HFT) brings to the stock market.
Ricardo C. Amaral - Author and economist
He can be reached at:
brazilamaral@yahoo.com
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Note: The thread that had been deleted from the Elite Trader Forum “Economic Forecast for US Economy for 2013 and Beyond”, I re-posted the information at:
“Currency Wars” and Brazil replacing its US dollar reserves with GOLD
